分析中国有色金属行业的碳峰值之路:一个基于铜的整个生命周期产业链
Junbo Wang1, Wei Liu2, Lu Chen2
1School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 2, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
背景情况:
- 铜是重要的非铁金属,对工业发展至关重要.
- 调整铜行业的结构是实现非铁行业碳峰值目标的关键.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估中国铜业内的碳排放.
- 分析结构变化及其对2022年至2060年碳排放的影响.
主要方法:
- 用于计算碳足迹的生命周期评估 (LCA).
- 材料流分析 (MFA) 和系统动力学 (SD) 用于结构分析.
- 利用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 进行场景建模.
主要成果:
- 预计铜资源流和正在使用的库存将大幅增加.
- 预计二级铜生产将在很大程度上取代初级生产,贸易是主要的供应来源.
- 再生子系统的碳排放量最低 (4%),而生产和贸易子系统的碳排放量为48%;贸易的体现碳排放量正在上升.
结论:
- 在SSP情景下,中国铜业的碳排放量预计将在2040年左右达到峰值.
- 到2030年实现84.6%的回收铜回收率和63.8%的非化石能源在电力结构中的回收率对于碳峰值目标至关重要.
- 优化能源结构和资源回收对于铜行业的碳峰值至关重要,有助于实现非铁行业的目标.
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