在连续的SARS-CoV-2变种浪潮中,内在病例严重性变化的方向是不一致的
David J Pascall1, Elen Vink2, Rachel Blacow3
1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, United Kingdom; Joint Universities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research (JUNIPER) Consortium, United Kingdom.
The Journal of infection
|June 3, 2023
概括
SARS-CoV-2 变种的内在严重程度波动,与阿尔法相比,一些变种如德尔塔变种的严重程度增加. 未来的变种严重程度仍然不确定,突出显示需要继续监测COVID-19.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19 流行病的特点是出现了众多的SARS-CoV-2 变种.
- 了解这些变异的内在严重程度对于公共卫生应对和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析连续主导的SARS-CoV-2变种内在严重性变化的变化.
- 量化与不同变体相关的严重结果 (住院,ICU入院,死亡) 的风险.
主要方法:
- 在NHS大格拉斯哥和克莱德的成年COVID-19病例的回顾性队列分析.
- 包括B.1.177,Alpha,Delta和Omicron亚变种在内的测序SARS-CoV-2血统.
- 结果措施包括入院,ICU入院或28天内死亡,分析使用累积几率比率.
主要成果:
- 与B.1.177 (OR=1.51) 相比,阿尔法显示严重程度增加.
- 德尔塔呈现的严重程度明显高于阿尔法 (OR=2.09).
- 与非AY.4.2 Delta (OR=0.49) 相比,Omicron的严重性降低了,而BA.2 Omicron与BA.1 Omicron (OR=0.86) 相似.
结论:
- 连续的SARS-CoV-2变种的内在严重程度并没有遵循一致的趋势.
- 观察到的严重程度波动强调了未来变种特征的不可预测性.
- 对SARS-CoV-2变种的持续监测对于预测和管理疾病严重程度的潜在变化至关重要.
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