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在气候变暖的极端大气河流
Shuyu Wang1, Xiaohui Ma2,3, Shenghui Zhou4
1Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Nature communications
|June 3, 2023
概括
极端大气河流 (EARs) 会导致严重的洪水. 更高分辨率的气候模型改善了EAR模拟,预计随着变暖和洪水风险增加,EAR将翻一番.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气河流 大气河流
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 极端大气河流 (EARs) 在中度沿海地区造成大量降雨和洪水.
- 目前的气候模型没有解决,低估了约50%的EAR,导致未来预测的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估波分辨率,高分辨率气候模拟对EARs建模的影响.
- 在不同的变暖情景下预测EAR的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了一个广泛的数据集,以的分辨率,高分辨率的社区地球系统模型 (CESM) 模拟.
- 分析了不同温度升温水平下的EAR发生,强度 (综合水蒸气传输) 和降水的变化以及代表度路径8.5 (RCP 8.5) 场景.
主要成果:
- 厄迪解析模型显著改善了EAR模拟,只有轻微的~10%的高估.
- 预计EAR将随着气温升高而几乎线性增加.
- 根据RCP 8.5,预计到21世纪末,全球EAR发生率,水蒸气运输和降水量将翻一番,陆地EAR将翻一番.
结论:
- 高分辨率的旋转分辨率模型提供了与非旋转分辨率模型相比更准确的EAR表示.
- 未来气候变暖将导致EAR频率和强度大幅增加,加剧洪水风险.
- 随着气候变暖,EAR与风暴之间的合减少可能会影响这些极端事件的可预测性.
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