时间序列分析生存和卵置周期持续时间的时间序列分析
Jacques D Charlwood1,2,3, Thomas A Smith4,5, Ayubo Kampango2,6,7
1DBL Centre for Health Research and Development, Department for Veterinary Pathobiology, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
PeerJ
|June 5, 2023
概括
估计疟疾载体生存率和淋巴细胞周期持续时间至关重要. 使用出口陷的新时间序列方法表明,雄性Anopheles funestus蚊子比雌性蚊子生存得更好,雄性蚊子的生存不受温度或杀虫剂处理的网的影响.
科学领域:
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 存活率和淋巴细胞周期持续时间是疟疾载体容量的关键决定因素.
- 现有有限的现场数据方法用于估计这些蚊子生命历史特征.
- 对蚊子生命周期阶段的时间序列分析未得到充分利用.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计莫桑比克的Anopheles funestus的生存和 oviposition周期持续时间.
- 为了比较不同的时间序列方法来分析现场数据.
- 调查温度和长时间使用的杀虫网 (LLIN) 对蚊子生存的影响.
主要方法:
- 在莫桑比克的Furvela收集了超过7.6年的Anopheles funestus蚊子.
- 应用了三种方法:光陷剖析的时间序列分析,静止收集数据的分析,以及出口陷数据的新时间序列分析.
- 扩展了现有的时间序列方法,以考虑周期持续时间的变化.
主要成果:
- 对周期持续时间的估计在不同方法之间有显著差异.
- 来自光陷数据的女性每日生存率 (0.740) 低于来自出口陷数据的男性生存率 (0.881).
- 女性的生存率随着温度的增加而增加 (几率比为每摄氏度1.021),而男性的生存率显示出微不足道的温度依赖性,并且不受LLIN的影响.
结论:
- 对出口陷的时间序列分析表明,男性Anopheles funestus的生存率高于女性.
- 男性的生存率与温度无关,并不受LLINs的影响.
- 雌性生存温度的依赖性与实验室发现不同;卵置周期持续时间的估计有不确定性.
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