印度尼西亚COVID-19对能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的影响
Djoni Hartono1,2, Arief Anshory Yusuf3, Sasmita Hastri Hastuti2
1Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia.
概括
印度尼西亚的COVID-19大流行减少了排放,但刺激政策可能会导致反弹. 可持续发展政策对于长期的环境效益和经济复苏至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候政策 气候政策
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行影响了全球经济,为减排带来了挑战和机遇.
- 像印度尼西亚这样的高排放国家面临着与"巴黎协定"保持一致的压力,平衡经济复苏与环境目标.
- 对COVID-19刺激计划的政策反应可能无意中导致疫情前排放水平的复苏.
研究的目的:
- 评估印尼COVID-19和刺激政策对宏观经济,能源消耗和排放的影响.
- 通过可计算的一般平衡模型,在国家和区域一级分析这些影响.
- 为可持续的经济复苏和环境保护提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 利用可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型来模拟COVID-19和刺激政策的影响.
- 对关键宏观经济指标,能源消费模式 (精炼石油,煤炭) 和总体排放的评估影响.
- 针对印度尼西亚国内的国家和特定区域的分类分析.
主要成果:
- 在目前的刺激政策下,宏观经济指标显示短期负面表现,长期改善.
- 精炼石油消费量出现了最显著的下降,其次是煤炭和电力需求.
- 排放量减少反映了国内生产总值 (GDP) 的下降;苏拉威西州的精炼石油使用量下降幅度最大,而爪-巴厘岛和苏门答腊则导致煤炭减少和排放量下降.
结论:
- 回到疫情前的发展轨迹不会带来持久的环境效益.
- 有效的政策干预是必要的,以利用大流行对环境健康经济发展的影响.
- 建议包括促进低碳技术,清洁能源转型,能源效率和可持续发展,以及中央和地方政府之间的协调财政政策,以防止排放反弹.
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