美国的队列变化. 从1960年到2014年的暴力犯罪模式:一个年龄-时期-队列交互方法
1Department of Sociology, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, 430 Park Hall, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA.
概括
对犯罪的队列效应是特定于年龄和时间的,而不是一生中恒定的. 这项研究模拟了这些对暴力犯罪的动态影响,揭示了年龄特定的队列偏差,影响了不同出生组的逮捕风险.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 以前的犯罪学研究经常假定犯罪的队列效应在整个生命过程中是恒定的.
- 这种假设忽略了Ryder (1965) 关于年龄特定队列效应的概念,限制了对社会变化影响的理解.
研究的目的:
- 将暴力犯罪的队列效应作为特定于年龄的模型,反映社会变化对不同年龄组的不同影响.
- 通过一种新的操作化来研究暴力犯罪的群体间差异和群体内部动态.
主要方法:
- 使用了年龄期-队列交互 (APC-I) 模型 (Luo & Hodges, 2020).
- 从1960年到2014年,分析了统一犯罪报告 (UCR) 针对抢劫,严重袭击和谋杀的年龄特定逮捕统计数据.
- 估计的平均队列偏差和生命周期动态.
主要成果:
- 发现显著的特定年龄队列偏差影响暴力犯罪逮捕风险.
- 早期和晚期婴儿潮一代表现出不同的队列内部抢劫逮捕动态.
- 暴力流行群 (1975年至1984年出生) 显示出与早期群体偏差相关的高凶杀逮捕风险.
结论:
- 该APC-I框架为对暴力犯罪的队列效应的动态性提供了新的见解.
- 犯罪学研究应该采用动态的,互动的方法,而不是对队列效应的静态的,附加的模型.
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