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一个模拟模型用于预测Covid-19的医院占用率,使用原型分析
Eduardo Redondo1,2, Vittorio Nicoletta1,2, Valérie Bélanger2,3
1Faculty of Business Administration, Université Laval, Quebec (Quebec), G1K 7P4, Canada.
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
|June 5, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种预测工具,用于预测COVID-19患者的医院病床占用率. 它帮助医疗管理人员优化资源配置,确保患者获得重症监护服务.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 流行病学建模 流行病学建模
- 卫生系统研究 卫生系统研究
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,全球医疗保健系统受到严重压力,导致资源短缺.
- 现有的流行病学模型往往没有直接转化为可操作的医院服务要求,例如床位占用.
- 医院管理人员需要有效的工具来预测患者的流入,并管理病床容量,包括重症监护室 (ICU) 的病床.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测COVID-19患者医院病床占用率的预测工具.
- 协助医疗管理人员做出有关资源配置和能力管理的明智决策.
- 确保COVID-19确诊病例持续获得住院和ICU服务.
主要方法:
- 使用离散事件模拟方法.
- 使用原型,从实际患者轨迹的经验分析中得出的原型,以建模疾病进展和资源利用.
- 能够将原型与区域数据或具有最小数据的特定病毒变异相匹配.
主要成果:
- 通过对现实的场景进行数值实验来证明预测工具的准确性.
- 展示了该工具支持医院管理人员日常决策的能力.
- 验证了该工具在最大限度地提高床位可用性和确保患者获得必要服务方面的有效性.
结论:
- 拟议的模拟工具准确地预测了COVID-19患者的医院病床占用率.
- 该工具使医疗保健管理人员能够优化资源管理,并提高患者护理服务.
- 有效的能力规划对于在流行病期间保持医疗保健系统弹性至关重要.
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