生物多样性时间序列倾向于在不断变化的环境中增加物种丰富度
Lucie Kuczynski1, Vicente J Ontiveros2,3, Helmut Hillebrand4,5,6
1Plankton Ecology Lab, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Wilhelmshaven, Germany. lucie.kuczynski@hotmail.com.
Nature ecology & evolution
|June 5, 2023
概括
全球生物多样性丧失是有争议的,但由于检测偏差,当地物种丰富程度可能会增加. 这项研究表明,即使在稳定的殖民和灭绝的情况下,数据中的时间自相关性也可以创造明显的财富趋势.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 全球物种丧失和当地丰富性稳定性之间的差异引发了关于数据质量和生物多样性指标的辩论.
- 仅仅是物种丰富可能无法充分捕捉生物多样性变化,这就引发了关于监测计划和数据解释的问题.
研究的目的:
- 调查物种丰富趋势差异背后的根本原因.
- 为了证明对稳定的物种丰富性的零期望可能是不准确的,即使在平衡的殖民和灭绝率.
- 量化检测偏差对观察到的财富趋势的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析鱼类和鸟类时间序列数据以确定丰富度趋势.
- 模拟时间序列使用中性模型与受控的平衡丰度和时间自相关性.
- 将观察到的趋势与模型生成的基线进行比较,以评估偏差效应.
主要成果:
- 观测到的鱼类和鸟类时间序列显示,物种丰富度的总体增加.
- 一个系统的偏见有利于早期发现殖民化而不是灭绝,这有助于观察到的财富增加.
- 模拟时间序列,尽管中性模型预计没有趋势,但由于时间自相关性,显示了显著的丰度变化.
结论:
- 时间自相关性显著影响物种丰富度变化的预期基线.
- 有限时间序列,人口持久性和分散限制可以在环境转变期间推动丰度变化.
- 缺乏丰富性趋势可能表明生物多样性预期的积极趋势的负偏差,需要修改分析方法.
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