用于医院再入院预测的可解释机器学习模型:两步提取回归树方法
Xiaoquan Gao1, Sabriya Alam2, Pengyi Shi3
1School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA.
BMC medical informatics and decision making
|June 5, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种两步机器学习方法,用于预测医院再入院. 该方法达到高精度,并提供可解释的风险因素,增强对临床应用的信任.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 先进的机器学习 (ML) 模型在医疗决策中提供了高精度,但缺乏可解释性,阻碍了临床采用.
- 可解释的ML工具可以从复杂的模型中提取见解,但它们对医院再入院预测的应用尚未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种ML算法,以高准确度预测30日和90日再入院的情况.
- 确保ML算法提供了对再接收风险因素的医学解释性见解.
主要方法:
- 采用了两步提取回归树方法.
- 首先训练了一个黑子预测算法,然后从它的输出中提取一个可解释的回归树.
- 来自亚洲大型教学医院的数据被用于模型开发和验证.
主要成果:
- 两步方法在准确性,AUC和AUPRC方面实现了与黑子模型 (例如神经网络) 相比的预测性能.
- 该模型确定的主要再接收风险因素与已建立的医学文献保持一致,证实了可解释性和有效性.
结论:
- 开发的两步方法为医院再入院提供了准确和可解释的预测.
- 这种方法为增加临床医生的信任和在医疗保健环境中采用ML模型来预测再入院提供了一个有希望的方法.
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