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即使在低排放场景下,对一个没有冰的北极的观察限制的预测也存在
Yeon-Hee Kim1, Seung-Ki Min2,3, Nathan P Gillett4
1Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea.
Nature communications
|June 6, 2023
概括
由于温室气体排放,北极海冰正在消失. 这项研究证实了这一影响,并表明在所有排放情景中,季节性无冰北极很可能发生,需要适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 北极研究研究北极研究
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 根据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第六次评估报告,在某些温室气体排放情景下,预计到本世纪中叶,北极将在9月份几乎没有冰.
- 目前的气候模型,特别是合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6),可能低估了温室气体对北极海冰的影响.
研究的目的:
- 将北极海冰区域的观察到的变化归因于温室气体增加.
- 评估CMIP6模型在模拟北极海冰对温室气体反应时的准确性.
- 在各种排放场景下预测北极海冰的未来.
主要方法:
- 使用归因分析方法来检测温室气体增加对北极海冰的影响.
- 分析了北极海冰区域的三个独立观测数据集.
- 根据观察到的趋势,缩放CMIP6模型的海冰对温室气体的反应,通过不完善的模型测试验证该方法.
主要成果:
- 温室气体增加对北极海冰地区的主要影响在观测数据中全年可检测到.
- CMIP6模型通常低估了因温室气体而导致的北极海冰损失的观察趋势.
- 经过归因调整的预测表明,在所有考虑的排放场景下,9月的北极地区将在季节性无冰.
结论:
- 温室气体排放对北极海冰产生深远和可检测的影响.
- 观察到的北极海冰趋势比目前的气候模型通常模拟的更为严重.
- 由于正在进行的温室气体排放的预计影响,为季节性无冰北极的规划和适应至关重要.
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