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未来湖泊热力学预测的不确定性是由湖泊和全球气候模型不同的驱动
Jacob H Wynne1,2, Whitney Woelmer1, Tadhg N Moore1
1Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA, United States of America.
PeerJ
|June 7, 2023
概括
气候变化影响湖泊的热力学. 气候和湖泊模型的不确定性对表面和深水的预测有不同的影响,指导未来的研究重点.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 临界技术 临界技术
背景情况:
- 淡水生态系统面临着日益增加的全球变化风险.
- 气候变化改变了全球湖泊的热力学动态,需要预测性理解.
- 在湖泊预测中量化不确定性对于管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化和评估湖泊模型选择不确定性和气候模型选择不确定性.
- 为美国苏纳皮湖 (Sunapee Lake) 开发湖泊热力学集体预测.
- 在各种气候变化场景下模拟2006年至2099年的热量指标.
主要方法:
- 通过使用四种气候模型和五种一维的水力动力学湖泊模型,汇集预测.
- 在三个不同的气候变化场景下进行模拟.
- 分析热量指标,包括地表和地下水温,施密特稳定性,分层持续时间和冰盖.
主要成果:
- 大多数模拟的湖泊热量指标预计将在下一个世纪发生变化.
- 气候模型的不确定性主导了地表水的指标 (例如,地表温度,冰的持续时间).
- 湖泊模型的不确定性主导着深水指标 (例如,底部温度,分层持续时间).
结论:
- 未来对湖底水量的预测应该优先考虑多个湖泊模型.
- 未来对湖面面积指标的预测应优先考虑多种气候模型.
- 了解模型选择的不确定性是准确湖泊动态预测的关键.
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