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未来气候预测使用LARS-WG6缩小模型在印度河上游盆地,巴基斯坦
Summera Fahmi Khan1,2, Usman Ali Naeem3
1University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan. fahmi.wah@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|June 7, 2023
概括
对上印度河盆地的气候变化预测显示,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,气温都会上升. 降水趋势是不确定的,尽管区域气候模型总体预测总体增加.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 上印度河流域 (UIB) 是水资源至关重要的地区.
- 了解当地气候变化影响对于适应战略至关重要.
- 之前的研究往往缺乏对这个特定流域的高分辨率预测.
研究的目的:
- 调查UIB的降水和温度的局部规模预测.
- 通过区域气候模型 (RCM) 和天气发生器来缩小气候数据.
- 根据代表性度途径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5.5 评估未来的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用了六个CORDEX RCM进行缩小.
- 雇佣了长阿什顿研究站天气发电机 (LARS-WG6) 提供每日数据.
- 对本世纪中期和本世纪末期的最高温度 (Tmax),最低温度 (Tmin) 和降水 (pr) 的分析预测.
- 在UIB中验证了LARS-WG6模型的温度和降水模拟性能.
主要成果:
- 所有的RCM都预测整个UIB的温度将持续上升.
- 与RCP 4.5.5相比,在RCP 8.5下预计会出现更高的温度升高.
- 降水预测显示的趋势不均,在增加或减少方面存在不同的RCM协议.
- 整体降水量增加的预测是由RCM集团.
结论:
- 预计UIB将经历显著的变暖,特别是在更高的排放场景下.
- 未来降水模式存在不确定性,需要强有力的水资源管理计划.
- 使用LARS-WG6缩小规模的RCM数据为UIB的当地气候变化影响评估提供了宝贵的见解.
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