估计墨西哥Prospera计划条件现金转移的经济和社会影响
L Dary Beltran1, M Carmen Delgado1
1Department of Economics, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Avda. de las Universidades s/n. Edificio A, 41704 Seville, Spain.
Evaluation and program planning
|June 7, 2023
概括
墨西哥的Prospera计划对经济产生了积极的影响,但并没有解决由于低工资导致的贫困或不平等问题. 解决低工资份额问题对于长期减少贫困和实现可持续发展目标10至关重要.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 公共政策分析 公共政策分析
背景情况:
- 墨西哥面临着持续高水平的贫困和不平等,自1995年经济危机以来,情况更加恶化.
- 作为一个关键的社会转移倡议,Prospera计划已被分析为其经济和分配效应.
- 了解持续贫困和不平等的根本原因对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析Prospera计划对墨西哥贫困和收入分配的影响.
- 确定导致持续贫困和不平等的潜在结构性经济因素.
- 为制定符合墨西哥结构性经济需求和联合国可持续发展目标10的公共政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型来模拟Prospera计划的经济效应.
- 分析了不同方案情景下的收入分布和贫困率.
- 评估了家庭转移与结构性工资问题的长期影响.
主要成果:
- 通过Prospera计划的家庭转移显示了对墨西哥经济的短期积极影响.
- 该计划的好处被持续低的工资份额所抵消,阻碍了贫困和不平等的显著减少.
- 模拟表明,如果没有转移,贫困和吉尼指数不会大幅下降.
结论:
- 虽然Prospera提供了经济利益,但它掩盖了低工资的根本问题,这使贫困和不平等持续存在.
- 有效地减少贫困和不平等需要解决低工资份额的结构性问题.
- 政策干预应针对经济不平等的根本原因,以实现可持续发展,并与可持续发展目标10保持一致.
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