净零气候目标的可信度差距使世界面临高风险
Joeri Rogelj1,2,3, Taryn Fransen4,5, Michel G J den Elzen6,7
1Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
概括
全球气候目标可能会被错过. 分析已实施的政策,而不是声明的承诺, 揭示了当前行动与国际气候目标之间的巨大差距.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境政策分析
- 国际关系
背景情况:
- 国际气候协议确立了全球目标.
- 评估进展往往依赖于国家承诺和承诺.
- 声明的承诺和实施的政策之间存在差距.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前气候政策的有效性.
- 将政策实施与已确定的气候目标进行比较.
- 发现全球气候目标的潜在缺陷.
主要方法:
- 分析国家气候政策文件和立法.
- 对减排政策影响的定量评估.
- 预计的政策成果与国际气候承诺的比较.
主要成果:
- 目前的气候政策不足以实现全球目标.
- 政策承诺与实际实施之间存在很大的差距.
- 减少排放的轨迹没有达到"巴黎协定"的目标.
结论:
- 专注于政策显示出错过气候目标的高风险.
- 迫切需要加强政策并加快实施.
- 国际合作对气候变化缓解至关重要.
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