在先兆子后的头十年内,高血压的预测模型在最初正常血压的妇女中
M C E Hooijschuur1,2, E B N J Janssen1,3,4, E G Mulder1
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Maastricht University Medical Centre and GROW, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
概括
一个新的预测模型可以在产前症发生10年后识别患高血压的高风险女性. 该工具使用五个关键变量,有助于管理与子宫前相关的长期心血管风险.
科学领域:
- 心血管健康 心血管健康
- 产科和妇科 产科和妇科
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 孕前是未来心血管疾病 (包括高血压) 的重要危险因素.
- 在怀孕后不久,女性的血压正常,仍有几年后患高血压的风险.
- 早期识别高血压风险对于预防性心血管护理至关重要 在前门后的妇女.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证发生性高血压的预测模型,用于经历过子宫前的女性.
- 为了确定与长期高血压风险相关的关键临床和生理变量后预先.
- 创建一个工具,用于早期风险分层在妇女有史以来的先兆子.
主要方法:
- 进行了一项纵向队列研究,对259名有先兆子史的妇女进行了研究.
- 多变量逻辑回归分析被用来开发预测模型.
- 内部验证是使用引导技术进行的.
主要成果:
- 在185名产后血压正常的妇女中,49名 (26%) 在产后11年内患上高血压.
- 预测模型,结合出生体重百分点,平均动脉压,总胆固醇和左心室参数的预测模型,显示出良好的至优秀的区分能力 (AUC 0.82).
- 该模型在预测事件高血压方面实现了高灵敏度 (98%) 和负预测值 (98%).
结论:
- 一个基于五个变量的验证预测模型有效地识别了妇女在患有妊娠前后高血压的风险.
- 这种工具对预防子宫的心血管后果的积极管理具有潜在的临床实用性.
- 建议进行进一步的外部验证,以确认其广泛的临床适用性.
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