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评估保护区在未来气候和土地使用变化场景下对大熊猫保护的有效性
Junfeng Tang1, Ronald R Swaisgood2, Megan A Owen2
1Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Institute of Ecology, China West Normal University, Nanchong, China; Liziping Giant Panda's Ecology and Conservation Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province, China.
Journal of environmental management
|June 8, 2023
概括
在气候变化下,保护区有效地维持大熊猫息地. 将土地使用纳入模型可以改善预测,强调土地使用政策对于熊猫保护和保护区管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 保护区 (PAs) 对生物多样性至关重要,但它们在土地利用和气候变化中的有效性未得到充分研究.
- 土地使用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 稳定性是PA的关键特征,但其对物种分布的影响很少被探索.
- 大熊猫 (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) 面临息地威胁,使其保护成为优先事项.
研究的目的:
- 评估PA内土地利用模式对大熊猫息地适宜性预测中的作用.
- 为了比较不同建模方法的有效性 (仅气候与气候和土地利用).
- 在各种气候和土地使用场景下评估中国熊猫保护区系统的有效性.
主要方法:
- 我们比较了四种模型配置:仅限气候,气候和动态土地利用,气候和静态土地利用,气候和混合土地利用.
- 使用了两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景:SSP126 (乐观) 和SSP585 (悲观).
- 评估了大熊猫散播能力 (无限与零) 对预计息地范围的影响.
主要成果:
- 纳入土地使用共变量的模型显著优于单独气候模型,预测更适合的息地.
- 静态土地利用模型在SSP126下预测的息地比动态/混合模型更多,但在SSP585.5下没有.
- 预计中国的熊猫保护区系统将有效地在熊猫保护区内保持合适的息地.
- 熊猫的分散能力极大地影响了结果,无限分散导致范围扩大,零分散导致收缩.
结论:
- 土地利用政策对于减轻气候变化对大熊猫的影响至关重要.
- 预计PA系统将保持有效,支持大熊猫的弹性.
- 建议进行审慎的管理和扩大PA,以确保熊猫种群的长期生存.
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