预测有害藻类的开花:适用于挪威北部的Dinophysis acuminata
Edson Silva1, François Counillon1, Julien Brajard2
1Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 3, Bergen, N-5007, Vestland, Norway.
Harmful algae
|June 8, 2023
概括
预测Dinophysis acuminata引起的有害藻类繁殖对于贝类的安全至关重要. 这项研究开发了一个预测模型,使用环境数据来预测鲜花的丰富性,有助于对公共卫生和水产养殖的早期警告.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 有害的藻类开花 有害的藻类开花
- 环境监测 环境监测
背景情况:
- 化 (Dinophysis acuminata) 产生腹性贝类毒素 (DST),对公众健康和贝类产业构成风险.
- 了解和预测D. acuminata的开花对于有效的管理和缓解策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估影响D. acuminata在挪威北部Lyngen峡湾开花的环境条件.
- 开发D. acuminata细胞丰富度的亚季节性预测模型 (7-28天).
主要方法:
- 通过使用历史的现场细胞度数据 (2006-2019) 训练了一个支持向量机 (SVM) 模型.
- 环境预测因素包括通过卫星遥感获得的海面温度 (SST),光合成活性辐射 (PAR) 和风速.
- 模型性能使用确定系数进行评估.
主要成果:
- D. acuminata的开花在夏季发生在7.8-12.7°C之间的水域,其度高达3954细胞/升.
- 预测模型实现了从0.46到0.55的确定系数,相当准确地预测季节性开花的发展和幅度.
- 海洋表面温度 (SST) 证明是季节性开花发展的有用预测指标,而过去的细胞丰度则改进了时间和振幅预测.
结论:
- 开发的SVM模型为D. acuminata开花的次季节预测提供了有价值的工具.
- 建议对Lyngen峡湾的早期预警系统进行校准模型的运行测试.
- 建模方法可以适应其他地区,并进行本地数据重新校准.
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