北部扩张并不能弥补北美北极森林南部的下降
Ronny Rotbarth1, Egbert H Van Nes2, Marten Scheffer2
1Environmental Sciences Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. ronny.rotbarth@wur.nl.
Nature communications
|June 8, 2023
概括
气候变化影响北美北极森林,显示范围收缩. 树木覆盖在中央增加,但由于火灾和伐木,在南部边缘下降,这表明生物群的潜在收缩和碳损失.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 森林科学 森林科学 森林科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化模型预测北极生物群向北移动.
- 对生物群规模变化的经验证据,特别是北极森林范围变化的证据仍然有限.
- 了解这些动态对于预测未来生态系统结构和功能至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化北美北方生物群中树木覆盖的时间变化.
- 通过远程传感数据评估北向生物群转移的证据.
- 为了确定观察到的树木覆盖变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用远程传感覆盖树木的数据,涵盖了二十年 (2000-2019) 的时间.
- 分析了北极生物群的树木覆盖变化的空间和时间模式.
- 与森林火灾和伐木等潜在驱动因素相关的树木覆盖变化.
主要成果:
- 在树木覆盖动态中观察到显著的南北不对称.
- 检测到树木覆盖分布的范围收缩,与简单的向北扩张相反.
- 树木覆盖在生物群的核心增加,但在南部边界下降,与野火和伐木有关.
结论:
- 北美北极生物群体正在展现结构变化,表明收缩,而不是均向北扩张.
- 由于干扰而导致的南部边界下降表明对气候变化和土地利用的脆弱性.
- 这些趋势可能表明,未来生物群的碳捕获能力可能会减少.
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