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解释欧洲中期Holocene的人口繁荣和破产
Dániel Kondor1, James S Bennett2, Detlef Gronenborn3
1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria. kondor@csh.ac.at.
Scientific reports
|June 8, 2023
概括
中 Holocene 欧洲人口动态显示反复出现的繁荣和衰退. 基于代理的模型显示,社会动态,而不是气候,最能解释这些人口波动和定居模式.
科学领域:
- 考古学的考古学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 古生态学 古生态学
背景情况:
- 中 Holocene 欧洲社会 (大约. 公元前70003000年) 呈现出周期性的人口动态,以快速增长和定居密度下降的时期为标志.
- 这些模式在放射性碳 (14C) 日期分布和区域考古定居点数据中很明显.
研究的目的:
- 调查中 Holocene 欧洲人口动态的驱动因素.
- 使用计算建模测试气候强迫与社会动态 (群体间冲突) 的竞争假设.
主要方法:
- 基于空间显式代理模型 (ABM) 的开发和应用.
- 将气候和社会动态假设转化为定量ABM场景.
- 模型生成的人口波动模式与实证考古数据的比较.
主要成果:
- 仅仅是气候变化无法复制人口繁荣和衰退的观察到的周期和幅度.
- 结合密度依赖社会冲突的ABM场景成功地重现了观察到的人口动态的定量特征.
结论:
- 社会过程,特别是群体间冲突,是塑造中 Holocene 欧洲人口动态的一个重要因素.
- 气候强迫不足以解释在此期间观察到的定居点和人口波动.
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