气候类比可以催化美国特种作物适应的跨区域对话
Siddharth Chaudhary1, Kirti Rajagopalan2, Chad E Kruger3
1Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Scientific reports
|June 8, 2023
概括
气候类型,即具有类似未来气候的地点,可以促进农业适应对话. 开发特定上下文的类比显示了可操作的气候变化见解的希望.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 通信理论 通信理论
背景情况:
- 有效的气候变化行动,特别是对于农业等复杂系统,需要通过简单的信息传输进行交互式对话.
- 气候类比,即识别具有类似未来气候的位置,是沟通气候变化影响的新方法.
- 气候模拟器促进对话的潜力和模拟开发方法的影响仍然未被充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用农业相关指标,为美国的特种作物生产开发气候上下文特定的类似物.
- 探索这些类型的潜力,以促进关于气候适应战略的对话.
- 评估模拟开发方法是否影响它们在沟通中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 基于美国特种作物生产的农业相关气候指标,开发了气候类比.
- 地理分析确定了21世纪中叶美国特种作物县的模拟位置.
- 进行了涉及目标-模拟对的试点对话,以评估获取适应见解的效果.
主要成果:
- 超过80%的美国特种作物县在21世纪中叶拥有可接受的美国气候类比.
- 西部和东北部的模拟适用性更高,与目标和模拟位置之间的作物相似性相关.
- 西部县通常在南方找到类似的东西,而其他地区则在西部找到它们.
结论:
- 特定环境的气候类比显示出在农业中促进可操作的气候适应见解的巨大潜力.
- 考虑到特定农业需求的定制类型的开发,提高了它们在通信中的实用性.
- 将模拟驱动的对话整合到更广泛的气候变化沟通策略中,可以改善适应规划和行动.
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