英国D68肠道病毒 (EV-D68) 传播的变化是从血清流行数据推断出来的
Margarita Pons-Salort1, Ben Lambert2, Everlyn Kamau3
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
eLife
|June 9, 2023
概括
肠道病毒D68 (EV-D68) 感染显著增加,但广泛的先前免疫力表明神经病原性增加,解释了2014年儿童急性软骨髓炎 (AFM) 爆发.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肠道病毒D68 (EV-D68) 在2014年在全球范围内出现,导致儿童急性软骨髓炎 (AFM).
- 驱动EV-D68出现的因素及其与AFM的关联仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查EV-D68传染性和人口易感性的变化.
- 了解EV-D68的流行病学及其与AFM爆发的联系.
主要方法:
- 针对EV-D68特异性中和抗体的血清流行率在2006年,2011年和2017年的英语血清样本中测量.
- 用催化数学模型来估计感染概率的变化.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在研究期间,EV-D68感染的年概率增加了约50%.
- 血清发病率数据表明,在AFM爆发之前,EV-D68的广泛流通.
- 仅仅增加传播并不能完全解释AFM病例的数量.
结论:
- 仅仅是EV-D68传播和人口敏感性的变化无法解释2014年AFM爆发的原因.
- 神经病原性增加可能是解释EV-D68相关AFM的出现所需的.
- 肠道病毒的表型变化显著影响疾病流行病学.
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