在有不完整死亡登记系统的三个环境中,针对COVID-19的替代流行病指标
Ruth McCabe1,2,3, Charles Whittaker3, Richard J Sheppard3
1Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Science advances
|June 9, 2023
概括
官方COVID-19死亡报告往往不完整,特别是在低收入国家. 这项研究使用了替代数据源和数学建模来估计亚的斯亚贝巴,亚丁和喀土穆的报告不足情况.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 官方的死亡报告系统往往无法捕捉到流行病的全部死亡负担,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
- 报道COVID-19死亡人数不足是一个重大挑战,阻碍了对大流行影响的准确评估.
- 替代数据来源对于了解生命登记系统较弱的地区的死亡率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化COVID-19死亡报告不足的程度在三个主要城市:亚的斯亚贝巴,亚丁和喀土穆.
- 评估将替代数据源与血清学研究合并以改善死亡率估计的实用性.
- 为加强未来公共卫生紧急情况的流行病监测提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用数学建模框架整合多个替代数据流.
- 包括来自墓地工作人员报告,墓地卫星图像和社交媒体调查的数据.
- 将这些与独立进行的代表性血清学研究相结合,以获得可靠的估计.
主要成果:
- 估计的COVID-19死亡报告率:在2020年期间,亚的斯亚贝巴的69-100%,在亚丁的0.8-8.0%,在喀土穆的3.0-6.0%.
- 在人道主义和低收入环境中显著报告不足.
- 突出了不同城市环境中报告完整性的变化.
结论:
- 当与血清学研究和数学建模相结合时,替代数据源可以显著改善在有限的生命登记环境中对流行病影响的估计.
- 这些发现强调了全球加强重要注册系统的必要性.
- 这种方法为监测未来流行病期间的死亡率提供了一个可行的策略,特别是在官方数据稀缺的情况下.
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