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通过混合深度学习方法对离岸平台进行概率实时天然气喷气式火灾后果建模
Weikang Xie1, Junjie Li2, Jihao Shi1
1Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong; Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, China.
这项研究引入了一种概率深度学习模型,用于预测海上平台上的天然气喷气火灾. 它提供更可靠的实时预测和不确定性量化,以提高应急响应.
科学领域:
- 离岸工程 在海上工程.
- 计算流体动力学 (CFD) 是一种计算流体动力学.
- 安全系统中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 来自海上平台爆炸的天然气喷气火灾带来了重大风险,需要准确的实时羽毛预测以进行应急规划.
- 当前的深度学习模型依赖于点估计,在出现预测缺陷时表现出过度自信和精度降低,阻碍了有效的紧急支持.
- 强大的实时建模对于减轻与离岸平台事件相关的损害,伤亡和环境污染至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为实时天然气喷射火灾后果建模开发一种概率深度学习方法.
- 将变化的贝叶斯推理与深度学习相结合,以提高预测的稳定性和准确性.
- 为离岸平台提供可靠的应急管理工具和数字双胞胎构建.
主要方法:
- 开发和模拟了海上平台上天然气喷气火灾的数值模型,以创建一个基准数据集.
- 实现了一个概率深度学习模型,整合了变量贝叶斯推理.
- 对诸如蒙特卡洛 (MC) 采样数 (m) 和学概率 (p) 等参数进行了灵敏度分析,以优化准确性和效率.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型实现了高精度,确定系数 (R2) 为0.965.
- 该模型展示了实时预测能力,推断时间为12毫秒.
- 与现有方法相比,喷气式火焰中预测的空间不确定性为决策提供了更全面和可靠的支持.
结论:
- 概率深度学习方法为实时天然气喷气式火灾建模提供了强大而准确的替代方案.
- 该模型能够量化空间不确定性的能力提高了其在离岸平台应急管理中的实用性.
- 这项研究有助于构建在离岸平台上的消防和爆炸应急响应系统的数字双胞胎.
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