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一种降级和偏差校正方法,用于气候模型组合模拟局部级小时降水量
Takao Yoshikane1, Kei Yoshimura2
1Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-Shi, Chiba, 277-8574, Japan. takao-y@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
Scientific reports
|June 9, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了气候模型中每小时降水量下调的新方法. 该方法提高了极端降水事件和当地气候影响的预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 气候模型模拟需要缩小规模,以进行本地级降水影响评估.
- 统计下调方法对于从观察和模拟数据中估计降水量至关重要.
- 准确预测极端降水事件需要缩小短期降水数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种新的缩放方法,用于气候模型模拟每小时降水量.
- 为了提高高分辨率的时间变化的降水系统的表示.
- 加强对降水模式的局部因素 (如地形) 的评估.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种针对时间变化的降水系统而设计的缩放方法.
- 将该方法应用于每小时降水的气候模型模拟.
- 研究了估计空间分布,月平均值和极端百分点的性能.
主要成果:
- 缩小缩小改进了每小时降水频率,月平均值和99百分点值的估计.
- 气候变化对降雨量和频率的影响在大多数地区都被确定.
- 该方法与气候模型模拟显示出一致性,并改善了极端事件的评估.
结论:
- 开发的降级方法增强了对极端降水事件气候特征的评估.
- 该方法提供了对影响降水的局部因素 (包括地形) 的更全面的表示.
- 这种方法提高了气候变化评估中局部降水预测的准确性.
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