高环境温度与澳大利亚温带气候城市的道路事故之间的关联:时间序列研究,2012-2021年
Yannan Li1, Blesson Mathew Varghese1, Jingwen Liu1
1School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
概括
高环境温度增加了阿德莱德的道路交通事故风险,导致0.79%的交通事故. 适度高温比极端高温带来更大的风险,突出了对气候意识的运输规划的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 运输安全运输安全
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 高环境温度与增加的发病率和死亡率有关.
- 有证据表明,高温与道路交通事故发生率之间存在关联.
- 澳大利亚的非最佳高温造成的交通事故负担仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查高环境温度对道路交通事故风险的影响.
- 为了量化与南澳大利亚阿德莱德高温相关的道路交通事故的负担.
- 分析中等和极端温度范围对碰撞发生的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了十年的道路交通事故 (n = 64,597) 和天气 (2012-2021) 的每日时间序列数据.
- 采用近似波松分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 来评估五天内的累积温度影响.
- 计算的相对风险 (RR) 和适度和极端温度范围的可归因分数.
主要成果:
- 在高环境温度和道路事故风险之间观察到一个J形的关联.
- 最低温度显示出明显的影响,最高风险发生在1天的延迟,持续5天.
- 高温占道路交通事故的0.79%,中度高温为0.55%,极端温度为0.32%.
结论:
- 研究结果表明,高温与阿德莱德的道路交通事故风险增加之间存在重大联系.
- 适度高的温度比极端的温度更多地增加了道路交通事故的负担.
- 公共卫生和交通规划人员应该考虑气候变化适应战略,以减轻与热量相关的道路交通事故风险.
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