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在本世纪中叶实现碳中和的情景下,可避免的热量风险
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 10, 2023
概括
到2050年实现碳中和将大大降低极端高温暴露和死亡风险,尤其有利于低收入国家. 早期气候行动可以大大避免热风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 社会经济影响社会经济影响
背景情况:
- 巴黎协定要求全球二氧化碳排放达到峰值,并实现碳中和,以防止危险的人为变暖.
- 由于温度和湿度上升而导致的热应激增加,造成了重大的全球变暖风险.
- 现有的气候预测在量化碳中和政策对避免热风险的好处方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的碳中和情景下量化避免的热风险.
- 评估到2050年实现碳中和,而不是到2060年实现碳中和对与热有关的风险的影响.
- 分析避免热风险效益的空间分布.
主要方法:
- 利用来自CovidMIP项目的多模型大集合气候预测,得到CMIP6的认可.
- 在温和绿色 (MODGREEN) 和强绿色 (STRGREEN) 恢复场景下,与FOSSIL基线场景相比,比较热暴露和死亡风险.
- 分析了2040-2049年期间预计的热风险.
主要成果:
- 在FOSSIL情景下,预计到2040-2049年,人口对极端热应激的暴露将增加四倍.
- 碳中和场景 (MODGREEN和STRGREEN) 可以分别减少12%和23%的热暴露.
- 预计与热相关的死亡风险减轻率为14% (MODGREEN) 和24% (STRGREEN),较早的中性 (2050) 带来更大的好处.
结论:
- 实现碳中和,特别是到2050年,可以显著缓解预计的热应激和相关死亡率的增加.
- 预计低收入国家将从低碳政策中获得更大的热风险避免利益.
- 调查结果支持政府优先考虑和推进早期气候变化缓解政策.
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