基于多维指标和其应用研究的多维指标,构建一个非的上胃肠道出血和再出血的风险预测模型
Xiaoxia Li1, Xiaolan Zheng1, Yuanyuan Wang1
1Department of Digestive System, The Fifth Hospital of Wuhan Wuhan 430050, Hubei, China.
American journal of translational research
|June 12, 2023
概括
一种新的预测模型识别了非变节性上部胃肠道出血 (NVUGIB) 复出血的关键风险因素. 老年,频繁的血,血小板数量低,以及D-二次体水平升高表明再出血的风险更高.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 内部医学 内部医学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 非的上部胃肠道出血 (NVUGIB) 构成再次出血的重大风险.
- 准确的风险分层对于及时干预和改善患者结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证NVUGIB患者再出血风险的预测模型.
- 建立一个早期查工具,以识别高风险个体.
主要方法:
- 对85名NVUGIB患者进行了回顾性分析,并提供了3个月的随访数据.
- 多变量后勤回归用于识别再出血的风险因素.
- 构建和验证一个名ogram预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在复出血和非复出血组之间观察到年龄,血凝血频率,血小板计数和D-二次数水平的显著差异.
- 确定了重出血的关键预测因子:年龄≥75,血凝量≥5倍,血小板数≤100*10^9/L,D-二次数≥0.5 mg/L.
- 诺莫格拉姆模型表现出良好的预测性能,AUC为0.887 (训练组) 和0.881 (验证组).
结论:
- 年龄,血质化频率,血小板计数和D-二次体水平是NVUGIB复出血风险的重要指标.
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型为临床评估和早期查NVUGIB患者的复出出血提供了宝贵的工具.
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