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人民主义和事实上的中央银行独立性
1University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
概括
民粹主义政府经常对中央银行施加压力,在没有法律变更的情况下破坏其独立性. 金融市场可以制这种影响,但真正的央行独立性在实践中仍然受到挑战.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 货币政策 货币政策 货币政策
背景情况:
- 央行独立对于货币政策至关重要,但面临着政治挑战,特别是来自新兴市场的民粹主义政府.
- 民粹主义领导人经常公开与中央银行发生冲突,同时声称尊重他们的自治权.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟民粹主义政客和名义上独立的中央银行之间的冲突.
- 调查民粹主义压力如何影响中央银行政策和实践中的独立性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种危机讨价还价模型来分析对中央银行的政治压力.
- 通过使用机器学习来量化公众压力来分类超过9,000份分析师报告,创建了一个新的数据集.
- 使用新的数据集,经验测试了模型的预测.
主要成果:
- 民粹主义政客比非民粹主义者对中央银行施加的公众压力更大.
- 当金融市场提供检查时,这种压力效果较差.
- 民粹主义政府在从中央银行获得利率优惠方面更成功.
结论:
- 在面对民粹主义压力时,正式的 (法定) 央行独立并不保证实际的 (事实上的) 独立.
- 民粹主义策略可以在不改变法律框架的情况下破坏央行自主权.
- 这些发现凸显了货币政策独立性对政治影响的脆弱性.
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