人为气候变化的影响加剧了加利福尼亚州夏季森林火灾
Marco Turco1, John T Abatzoglou2, Sixto Herrera3
1Department of Physics, Regional Atmospheric Modelling Group, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, Murcia 30100, Spain.
概括
加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 与1971年至1995年相比,加利福尼亚州在1996-2021年期间夏季森林火灾烧毁面积 (BA) 增加了五倍.
- 气温上升和干燥度增加被怀疑是增加BA的驱动因素.
- 自然变化与人为气候变化对增加BA的确切贡献尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 开发加利福尼亚州夏季燃烧区域 (BA) 的气候驱动模型.
- 评估人为气候变化对BA增加的影响.
- 区分自然气候变化和人为气候变化对森林火灾的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个气候驱动的模型,用于夏季加利福尼亚州的燃烧区域 (BA) 演变.
- 利用自然气候和历史气候模拟.
- 与观察到的 BA 数据进行人为强迫和没有人为强迫的模型输出进行比较.
主要成果:
- 几乎所有观察到的BA增加都归因于人为气候变化.
- 历史气候模拟与人为强迫显示了172%的区域比自然的模拟更多的区域烧毁.
- 人为强迫对BA的影响从2001年开始就可检测到,而仅仅是自然强迫的影响无法检测到.
结论:
- 人为气候变化是加利福尼亚州森林火灾烧毁面积增加的主要驱动因素.
- 预计到2031-2050年,未来的森林火灾BA将增加3-52%,即使有燃料限制.
- 积极的适应策略对于管理不断升级的野火风险至关重要.
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