量化政治微观定位的潜在说服性回报
Ben M Tappin1,2, Chloe Wittenberg1, Luke B Hewitt3
1Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
概括
政治微观定位可以显著提高竞选广告的有效性,比其他策略高出70%以上. 然而,它的优势因政策问题和目标复杂性而异.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
背景情况:
- 人们担心政治微观目标对选举和民主的影响.
- 有限的实证研究量化了微目标策略对替代竞选方法的说服力优势.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计微观定位与使用美国政策问题广告的其他竞选策略相比,具有说服力的优势.
- 研究机器学习和消息预测在优化微目标效率方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 进行了两项调查实验,以比较微型定向与两个替代消息策略.
- 微观定位涉及将机器学习与消息预测相结合,以定制广告为个人.
- 绩效的评估是基于对政策态度的说服力影响.
主要成果:
- 微观定位策略显示,对于特定的政策态度,其平均说服力优势是70%或更多,而不是其他策略 (研究1).
- 当通过一个以上的共变量定位消息时,没有观察到额外的说服力收益.
- 微定位的性能优势是特定于问题,并且在用于识别目标态度时更为有限 (研究2).
结论:
- 微定位,整合消息预测和机器学习,可以增强竞选的说服力影响.
- 有效的微观定位可能不需要广泛收集个人数据来识别复杂的受众-消息交互.
- 微观定位的实际说服性优势取决于背景,并且根据不同的政治问题和定位方法而有所不同.
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