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证明海适应未来沿海洪水风险的价值
Alexandra Toimil1,2, Iñigo J Losada3, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta3
1IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Isabel Torres 15, 39011, Santander, Spain. toimila@unican.es.
Nature communications
|June 12, 2023
概括
海显著减少了沿海洪水的破坏,保护了价值数百万美元的资产. 投资海营养提供了巨大的好处,远远超过成本,这对于有效的沿海适应战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 沿海的地形形态.
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 有效的沿海洪水适应需要对损失,成本和收益进行准确的估值.
- 未来的洪水预测和资源限制带来了巨大的不确定性.
- 海提供了自然的沿海保护,但它们的动态演变在适应规划中经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种方法来量化海的防洪效益.
- 为了解释风暴侵蚀,海岸线演变和沿海洪水之间的动态相互作用.
- 根据各种未来情景来评估这些好处,包括共享的社会经济路径和海平面上升.
主要方法:
- 风暴侵蚀,长期海岸线变化和沿海洪水的综合建模.
- 开发的方法应用于澳大利亚Narrabeen-Collaroy海系统.
- 情景分析包括共同社会经济路径的不确定性,海平面上升和海状况.
主要成果:
- 如果不考虑侵蚀,到2100年洪水损害可能会被低估两倍.
- 保持目前的海宽度可以在2100年之前防止大约7.85亿澳元的洪水损害.
- 到2050年,维护海岸线的防洪和娱乐效益总和将超过150倍的营养成本.
结论:
- 海是沿海洪水适应的重要自然资产.
- 动态沿海过程必须纳入适应战略的经济评估.
- 这些发现支持加快用于沙恢复和营养的金融工具,以增强沿海的弹性.
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