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根据加拿大的气候变化和人口老龄化情景,未来与温度相关的过度死亡率在加拿大
Christopher Hebbern1, Pierre Gosselin2,3, Kai Chen4,5
1Climate Change & Innovation Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. christopher.hebbern@hc-sc.gc.ca.
概括
气候变化将增加加拿大的与温度相关的死亡人数,特别是在老年人中. 紧急减缓温室气体排放对于减少未来的死亡风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,全球气温正在上升.
- 气温上升对死亡率的影响,特别是考虑到未来的人口变化,需要进一步调查.
- 了解这些影响对于加拿大的公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估加拿大的与温度相关的死亡风险,直到2099年.
- 分析年龄组和人口增长情景如何影响这些风险.
- 在不同的气候变化和社会经济路径下预测未来的死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用来自加拿大111个卫生区域的每日非意外死亡数据 (2000-2015年).
- 采用了两部分时间序列分析,将死亡率与每日平均温度联系起来.
- 模拟的未来温度使用联结模型相互比较项目6 (CMIP6) 在共享社会经济路径 (SSPs) 下组合,预计过度死亡率到2099.
主要成果:
- 在高温室气体排放情景下,预计到2090-2099年,与温度相关的过度死亡率将增加17.31%.
- 在强有力的缓解情景下,预计较低的净增长率为3.29%.
- 老年人 (65岁以上) 面临着最高的净增长,人口老龄化情景加剧了死亡风险.
结论:
- 加拿大在较高排放场景下面临着与温度相关的死亡率大幅增加.
- 强有力的温室气体减排政策可以大幅减少这种未来负担.
- 积极的公共卫生战略对于应对不断升级的气候变化相关死亡风险至关重要.
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