患有Covid-19的儿童疾病严重程度的危险因素:临床预测模型
David Chun-Ern Ng1, Chuin-Hen Liew2, Kah Kee Tan3
1Hospital Tuanku Ja'afar, Negeri Sembilan, Ministry of Health, Jalan Rasah, 70300, Seremban, Malaysia. davidngce@gmail.com.
这项研究确定了儿童中度至重度COVID-19的关键风险因素. 开发了一个预测性名谱,以帮助早期识别儿科患者的严重疾病.
科学领域:
- 儿童传染病 儿童传染病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 儿童占COVID-19住院患者的很大一部分.
- 关于儿童群体中严重COVID-19的预测因素的数据有限.
- 了解这些预测因素对于有效管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定与儿童中度至重度COVID-19相关的危险因素.
- 在儿科患者中开发适度/重度COVID-19的预测性诺莫грам.
- 为帮助住院儿童的早期临床决策.
主要方法:
- 在马来西亚 (2021) 接受COVID-19住院治疗的儿童 (≤12岁) 的回顾性队列研究.
- 多变量逻辑回归分析,以确定中度/严重疾病的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于预测中度/重度COVID-19的诺姆图,评估AUC,敏感性,特异性和准确性.
主要成果:
- 分析了1,234名患有COVID-19的儿科患者 (211名中度/重度).
- 确定了9个独立的危险因素:并发症,呼吸短促,吐,腹,皮疹,发作,体温,胸部衰退和异常的呼吸声音.
- 诺米图表表现出良好的预测性能,AUC为0.86.
结论:
- 纳米图包括临床参数,可以有效预测儿童中度/严重的COVID-19.
- 这种工具可以帮助临床医生做出个性化治疗决策.
- 需要在不同的群体中进一步验证.
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