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广泛的党派纠纷大多会在全国范围内取消,但会减少选举竞争
Christopher T Kenny1, Cory McCartan2, Tyler Simko1
1Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
概括
党派纠纷在美国的重新划分地区中很常见,但它对全国的影响很小,稍微有利于共和党人. 它还减少了选举竞争和响应国家投票变化的能力.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 选举地理 选举地理
背景情况:
- 美国许多州的国会区划线是由党派行为者绘制的,这引发了人们对策略策略的担忧.
- 重区划对选举结果的影响往往与其他因素,如地理和重区规则混为一谈.
研究的目的:
- 隔离和量化重新区分的党派效应.
- 建立一个无党派的基准来比较已颁布的国会计划.
主要方法:
- 与一组模拟的,无党派的替代计划对比美国众议院的制定计划.
- 在不同重新划分选区的场景下,分析选民偏见,竞争和反应能力.
主要成果:
- 在2020年重新划分区的周期中,党派游行是普遍存在的.
- 在全国范围内,大多数大选策划引发的偏见都被取消了,导致共和党人平均获得了两席.
- 地理和重新划分区的规则有助于温和的,独立的亲共和党偏见.
结论:
- 党派纠纷大大减少了选举竞争.
- 格里曼德勒使得美国众议院的党派组成不那么响应全国投票变化.
- 虽然广泛,党派纠纷的全国选举影响有限.
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