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从病原体基因组数据中估计抗菌素耐药性的适应性成本和益处

David Helekal¹, Matt Keeling², Yonatan H Grad³

¹Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

|June 14, 2023

概括

了解抗生素耐药性的成本和益处是公共卫生的关键. 新的模型和遗传学分析可以估计这些参数,指导抗生素的使用,并防止耐药性传播.

科学领域:

微生物学微生物学
流行病学流行病学
计算生物学计算生物学

背景情况:

细菌病原体的抗生素耐药性构成了严重的公共卫生威胁.
虽然耐药性在抗生素压力下赋予了健康优势,但它往往会产生健康成本.
准确估计耐药性成本和益处对于优化抗生素管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发一种新的流行病学模型,用于敏感和耐药的细菌变体.
将抗生素耐药性的成本和益处纳入明确的参数.
为了使这些参数的准确估计使用遗传学数据.

主要方法:

提出了一种针对敏感和耐药细菌变异的联合流行病学模型.
利用贝叶斯推断与敏感和耐药血统的遗传学数据.
使用模拟数据集验证了方法,以确保准确性和可扩展性.

主要成果:

成功解开和估计阻力成本和收益的单独参数.
分析了 *Neisseria gonorrhoeae* 基因组数据 (2000年至2013年,美国).
在两个无关的诺基诺隆耐药系中确定了类似的流行动态和耐药性参数.

结论:

开发的模型和推断方法准确地估计了阻力成本和效益参数.
尽管诺基诺因耐药性而被放弃用于淋病治疗,但有针对性的使用可能是可行的.
建议在约10%的淋病病例中使用诺基诺的可能性,而不会促进进一步的耐药性增长.

关键词:

抗微生物耐药性抗微生物耐药性基因组流行病学基因组流行病学植物动力学学.耐力健身成本耐力健身成本

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