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中国绿色金融市场的风险测量基于B-spline定量回归
1College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
Heliyon
|June 14, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的B-spline量子式方法来衡量中国碳市场的风险. 新方法在评估碳排放交易风险时提供了更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融风险管理 金融风险管理
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 中国的绿色金融碳排放市场正在增长.
- 准确的风险测量对于市场稳定至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉溢出效应.
研究的目的:
- 建议使用B-spline定量方法对条件风险值 (CoVaR) 进行新的测量.
- 准确测量中国碳排放市场的溢出效应.
- 评估拟议方法的性能与现有方法相比.
主要方法:
- 构建一个可变系数 CoVaR 模型.
- 使用B-spline量子式方法估计模型系数.
- 分析 ΔCoVaR 和 VaR.之间的关系.
- 对五种碳交易配额风险测量的实证调查 (2014-2022年).
- 蒙特卡洛模拟来验证B-spline优势.
主要成果:
- B-spline量子式方法在风险测量方面表现出卓越的表现.
- 提出的方法实现了最高的风险适配成功率.
- B-spline方法在风险评估中产生了最小的错误.
- 经验结果证实了中国碳市场的有效性.
结论:
- B-spline量子式方法提供了一种更准确,更可靠的方法来衡量碳市场中的金融风险.
- 这种方法提高了对排放交易体系中溢出效应的理解.
- 这些发现支持改善环境金融的风险管理策略.
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