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使用基于模型的预测器管理COVID-19的风险:北达科他州的案例
Savita K Sidhu1, Adam Hohman1, Mark A Strand1
1North Dakota State University, Department of Public Health, Fargo, North Dakota, USA.
北达科他州的COVID-19指标低于代表的疫情风险. 哈佛大学的指标准确地反映了不断增加的病例,建议将其作为未来流行病的国家标准.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 北达科他州经历了高的冠状病毒疾病2019 (COVID-19) 病例和死亡率.
- 有效的公共卫生战略依赖于准确的风险评估指标.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较北达科他州在COVID-19大流行期间指导公共卫生行动时使用的三个指标.
- 评估国家特定指标的准确性与国家模型相比.
主要方法:
- 分析了北达科他州各县的COVID-19病例和死亡数据.
- 他们比较了三个指标:北达科他州的健康指标 (病例/10,000,测试/10,000,阳性率),州长的指标 (来自新闻发布会) 和哈佛模型 (病例/100,000).
- 奇平方测试用于比较2020年特定日期的度量差异.
主要成果:
- 最初,没有观察到显著的度量差异.
- 截至2020年9月23日,哈佛的指标显示危急风险,而北达科他州和州长的指标分别显示中等和低风险.
结论:
- 北达科他州和州长的指标低估了COVID-19爆发的风险.
- 哈佛的指标更好地反映了不断升级的风险,应该考虑国家流行病应对计划.
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