最近危机期间中国和印度周期的同步:马尔科夫切换分析
Pami Dua1,2, Divya Tuteja1,2
1Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India.
概括
中国和印度等新兴市场经济体经历了全球危机带来的重大增长影响. COVID-19大流行导致的经济衰退比大衰退或欧元区危机更严重.
科学领域:
- * 经济学 * 经济学
- * 计量经济学 计量经济学
- * 国际金融 国际金融
背景情况:
- *最近的全球危机,包括大衰退 (2007-09),欧元区危机 (2010-12年) 和COVID-19大流行 (2020-21年),对新兴市场经济体 (EME) 产生了重大影响.
- *中国和印度是具有重大全球经济影响力和相互联系的关键新兴经济体.
研究的目的:
- *分析全球重大危机事件对中国和印度经济增长制度的影响.
- * 确定中国和印度的经济特异性和共同的增长周期/制度.
- * 为了比较不同危机,特别是COVID-19流行病中增长影响的严重程度.
主要方法:
- * 应用马尔科夫切换 (MS) 分析来辨别经济特异性和共同的增长周期.
- *利用单变量MS自回归 (MS-AR) 模型来描述国家特定的增长模式 (负增长,中等增长,高增长).
- *采用多变量MS向量自回归 (MS-VAR) 模型来研究中国,印度和美国的共同生长阶段.
主要成果:
- * 确定了中国和印度的不同国家特定增长制度,在危机时期有不同的重叠.
- *揭示了中国和印度在动荡的全球经济时期共同的负增长阶段,归因于强大的贸易和金融联系.
- * 证明COVID-19大流行导致中国,印度和美国的经济衰退比大衰退和欧元区危机更严重.
结论:
- *全球危机极大地影响了新兴企业的增长动态,创造了国家特异性和共同的周期性模式.
- * 通过贸易和金融的相互连接扩大了新兴经济体和发达经济体之间经济冲击的传播.
- *COVID-19大流行对全球经济增长造成了独特的严重冲击,超过了以前重大危机的影响.
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