建设中国电网以实现碳中和目标的二氧化碳排放:基于自上而下和自下而上综合模型
1State Grid Shaoxing Power Supply Company, Shaoxin, 312000, China. sgccliuyan@163.com.
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 电力行业是中国最大的工业排放者.
- 可再生能源的扩张需要大量的电网建设.
- 减轻电网建设产生的碳排放对于实现碳中和目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据中国的碳中和目标,量化到2060年发电网建设的体现碳排放量.
- 确定影响这些排放的关键驱动因素.
- 提出在电网开发中减缓碳排放的政策影响.
主要方法:
- 利用综合评估模型 (IAMs),结合自上而下的和自下而上的方法.
- 基于已识别的驱动因素预测的体内排放.
- 分析了经济增长,能源效率和能源结构对排放的影响.
主要成果:
- 国内生产总值 (GDP) 的增长是增加体现碳排放的主要驱动因素.
- 能源效率的提高和能源结构的转变减少了排放.
- 根据碳中和目标,预计到2060年,总体碳排放量将达到1.105.7亿 (Mt).
- 可再生能源的发展刺激了电网建设.
结论:
- 预计到2060年,电网建设的体现碳排放量将大幅增加.
- 经济增长是一个主要因素,而效率和可再生能源的整合提供了缓解潜力.
- 重新评估成本和碳中和技术对于可持续的电力供应和实现气候目标至关重要.
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