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在全球变暖下,维多利亚湖盆地极端气候事件将在全球变暖下加剧
Obed M Ogega1,2, Enrico Scoccimarro3, Herbert Misiani4
1The African Academy of Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya. obed.matundura@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|June 15, 2023
概括
东非地区未来降水情况
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 维多利亚湖盆地面临着现有的水资源冲突.
- 了解未来的降水对于区域稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析维多利亚湖盆地的预测降水变化.
- 评估这些变化对水资源管理的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用偏差校正的合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 预测.
- 分析了平均年度和季节性降水气候学.
- 评估了降水强度和极端事件的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶,平均年降水量将增加5%.
- 在本世纪末显著加剧:16% (ANN),10% (MAM),18% (OND).
- 2070-2099年,每日强度 (16%),五天最大 (29%) 和大量降水 (47%) 的增加.
结论:
- 维多利亚湖盆地未来的降水模式表明,降水量将大幅增加.
- 这些变化将加剧该地区现有的水资源挑战.
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