中国的时空模式,老龄化和医疗资源的匹配水平和预测
Zhenyan Wang1, Wei Ye1, Xicheng Chen1
1Department of Health Statistics, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, NO.30 Gaotanyan Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400038, China.
BMC public health
|June 15, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 空间流行病学 空间流行病学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是一个重大的全球挑战,增加对医疗资源的需求.
- 了解人口老龄化和医疗保健基础设施之间的相互作用对于社会规划至关重要.
- 中国人口快速老龄化需要对医疗资源分配进行深入分析.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国大陆人口老龄化和医疗资源之间的时空动态和相互作用.
- 通过使用改进指标 (IAR) 评估医疗资源与老龄化人口的当前匹配水平.
- 预测人口老龄化,医疗资源及其一致性的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国卫生统计年鉴和中国统计年鉴 (2011-2020) 的数据.
- 采用空间自关联和贝叶斯的时空效应模型来分析分布和相互作用.
- 应用内核密度分析用于可视化和ETS-DNN模型用于预测.
主要成果:
- 人口老龄化和医疗资源都显示出年增长,但空间分布不均.
- 存在显著的时空相互作用,在中国东部的度更高.
- 资源老龄化指标 (IAR) 显示了区域差异和一些关键领域的下降趋势,尽管未来的预测表明总体上升.
结论:
- 在中国,人口老龄化和医疗资源之间存在着复杂的时空相互作用.
- 该IAR强调了差异和需要有针对性的战略来支持人口老龄化.
- 预测显示,区域不平等仍在持续,这凸显了针对老龄化的安全系统和医疗服务的需求.
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