在具有多次时间延迟的传染病模型中,稳定性开关,周期性振荡和全球稳定性
Anuj Kumar1, Yasuhiro Takeuchi2, Prashant K Srivastava3
1School of Mathematics, Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology, Patiala 147004, India.
这项研究使用延迟微分方程模拟传染病动态,揭示了信息延迟和免疫力减弱如何影响疾病稳定性和人口振荡. 在特定条件下,Hopf-Hopf分叉显示了复杂的稳定开关.
科学领域:
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 动态系统 动态系统
背景情况:
- 传染病建模需要考虑信息延迟和免疫力减弱.
- 以前的模型经常简化或省略这些关键的时间依赖因素.
- 了解这些延迟是预测疾病传播和控制的关键.
研究的目的:
- 分析一个延迟微分方程模型,包括信息传播延迟和免疫力减弱的时间延迟.
- 调查无病和特有平衡点的本地和全球稳定性.
- 为了探索由于时间延迟而出现的振荡和多个稳定开关 (Hopf-Hopf分叉) 的出现.
主要方法:
- 对平衡点的定性分析.
- 霍夫双叉分析用于检测振荡和稳定开关.
- 用于全球稳定性分析的利亚普诺夫函数构造.
- 数字模拟用于验证理论发现.
主要成果:
- 没有疾病的平衡稳定性取决于免疫力减弱的速度和延迟,具有关键值.
- 在某些条件下,特有平衡在局部上是稳定的,无论在某些条件下延迟.
- 霍夫和霍夫-霍夫分叉导致人口振荡和多个稳定性开关.
- 固有平衡的全球稳定性是建立的,无论时间的滞后.
结论:
- 信息和免疫的时间延迟显著影响传染病的动态和稳定性.
- 该模型预测了诸如振荡和多个稳定开关之类的复杂行为.
- 这些发现为疾病控制策略提供了关键的见解,考虑到现实的时间延迟.
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