个人偏好,政府政策和COVID-19:一种游戏理论的流行病学分析
Yuxun Zhou1, Mohammad Mafizur Rahman1, Rasheda Khanam1
1School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia.
Applied mathematical modelling
|June 16, 2023
概括
政府面临着COVID-19感染控制和社会福祉之间的权衡. 游戏理论揭示了政策决策取决于公共卫生信号和传播率,影响流行病的结果.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,人们面临着重大的健康,社会和经济挑战.
- 政府干预以控制感染风险,会带来巨大的社会成本.
- 公民对限制性政策的偏好各不相同,使政府决策变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 分析政府的流行病政策与不同类型的公民偏好之间的战略相互作用.
- 通过游戏理论的流行病学框架,模拟大流行期间的决策过程.
- 了解个人偏好如何影响政府选择限制性措施.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个扩展的易感-暴露-无症状-传染性-恢复 (SEAIR) 模型,结合个人偏好.
- 采用信号游戏模型来代表政府决策.
- 在这个战略框架内分析了一个现实的COVID-19感染模型.
主要成果:
- 根据公民信号 (抗疫与自由信号) 确定了两个聚合平衡.
- 当公民发出抗疫措施的信号时,政府采取严格的政策,当自由信号占据主导地位时,政府放松.
- 流行病的灭绝取决于没有限制的传播率,以及在使用非药物干预 (NPI) 时的限制严格性.
结论:
- 该研究整合了流行病学和游戏理论方法,以实现更现实的流行病分析.
- 调查结果强调了个人偏好和政府战略反应在管理公共卫生危机中的关键作用.
- 结果为公共管理和政府决策提供了有价值的见解,在流行病和未来的卫生紧急情况期间.
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