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在北极水域对船舶与冰相撞风险的因果关系分析的综合方法
Zhuang Li1, Xiaoming Zhu2, Ronghui Li3
1Naval Architecture and Shipping College, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China. zhuang.li@gdou.edu.cn.
概括
在北极地区,船与冰的碰撞带来了重大风险. 贝叶斯网络模型将环境因素确定为关键风险,提出的措施将航行风险降低54%以上.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 风险分析 风险分析
- 在北极的航行导航.
背景情况:
- 恶劣的北极环境增加了船舶与冰相撞的风险.
- 对有效的风险管理来说,量化事故原因至关重要.
- 在极地地区,船舶航行安全需要进行严格的分析.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型来分析船冰碰撞风险.
- 量化识别关键风险因素和因果关系路径.
- 为北极航行制定有效的风险管理策略.
主要方法:
- 断层树分析 (FTA) 用于BN结构建设.
- 三角模糊和模糊化用于量化专家知识.
- 贝叶斯网络推断用于北极水域风险因果关系分析.
主要成果:
- 环境因素是北极船舶航行的主要风险.
- 确定了四个关键的风险因果关系路径.
- 实施这些路径的管理措施可以显著降低导航风险,总共降低54.63%.
结论:
- 拟议的BN模型有效地分析了船与冰相碰撞的风险.
- 有针对性的风险管理策略可以大大提高北极航行安全.
- 该方法为确保极地水域安全提供了宝贵的指导.
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