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城市绿色基础设施在气候变化下的水需求
Haojie Cheng1, Chae Yeon Park2, Mingyun Cho1
1Dept. of Landscape Architecture, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Republic of Korea.
The Science of the total environment
|June 17, 2023
概括
气候变化增加了城市绿色基础设施的水需求. 这项研究估计了UGI未来的灌需求,显示了在各种气候情景下需求的增加,这对城市水资源管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候变化,以不可预测的降雨和城市气温上升为特征,对管理城市绿色基础设施 (UGI) 提出了重大挑战.
- 城市水资源管理对于缓解诸如洪水,污染和热岛等城市环境问题至关重要,需要有效的水资源管理才能获得持续的好处.
- 现有的研究缺乏在预测的气候变化场景下对UGI水资源管理的综合战略.
研究的目的:
- 量化UGI目前和未来的水需求.
- 为了估计有效的降雨量,并确定在气候变化下的降雨缺口期间的灌需求.
- 为开发适应性水资源管理战略提供基础.
主要方法:
- 利用气候变化预测 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 来建模UGI的水需求.
- 根据预测的气候数据计算有效降雨量和灌需求.
- 分析了不同月份和未来时期的水需求和灌需求的时间变化.
主要成果:
- 在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,UGI的水需求预计将增加,而在RCP8.5.5情景下,水需求将更明显地增加.
- 预计到2081-2100.5,首尔的UGI平均年水需求将从731.29毫米上升到756.45毫米 (RCP4.5) 和816.47毫米 (RCP8.5).
- 在未来的几十年里,即使在高水压条件下,由于降雨不足,大多数月份都需要灌,特别是在5月到6月.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,UGI的水需求将大幅增加,需要积极的水资源管理.
- 该研究提供了优化灌计划和城市绿地水资源分配的关键数据.
- 研究结果支持开发弹性UGI水资源管理策略,以确保在气候变化中提供生态服务.
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