相关实验视频
Updated: Jul 26, 2025

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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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我认为,因此我采取行动, Revisited:为风险分析建立更坚实的基础
Joseph Árvai1,2, Alex Segrè Cohen3, Lauren Lutzke1
1Department of Psychology, and, Wrigley Institute for Environment & Sustainability, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
概括
积极开放思维 (AOT) 通过寻求客观信息来改善风险判断和决策. 这种思维方式增强了对专家的信任,并支持基于证据的结论,即使在诸如流行病这样的复杂情况下.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 风险分析 风险分析
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 积极开放思维 (AOT) 涉及评估信息,而不依赖于先前的信念.
- 在不确定情况下,AOT与更准确的风险判断和基于证据的决策有关.
- 当缺乏领域知识时,AOT有助于依赖可信的专家.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19风险分析的背景下确认AOT的好处.
- 将AOT的先前发现扩展到现实世界的决策场景.
- 建议将AOT整合到风险分析过程中.
主要方法:
- 在风险分析的先前研究基础上进行后续研究.
- 在COVID-19流行病背景下对AOT原则的实证验证.
- 决策过程的定性和定量分析.
主要成果:
- 证实在COVID-19期间,AOT可以提高风险判断准确性和基于证据的决策.
- 证明了将批判性推理"外包"给可信的专家的有效性.
- 发现AOT原则适用于各种情况,包括气候变化和政治.
结论:
- AOT是一个有价值的认知风格,用于导航复杂的风险和不确定性.
- 提供了建议,以在风险分析框架内促进AOT.
- 促进AOT可以加强风险评估和决策的过程和结果.
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