一个贝叶斯网络-GIS概率模型,用于解决人类干扰对生态保护红线区域的风险
Jing Liu1, Xiaojuan Xu1, Changxin Zou1
1Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China, Nanjing, 210042, China.
Journal of environmental management
|June 18, 2023
概括
人类干扰活动对中国的生态保护红线 (ECR) 构成风险. 贝叶斯网络-GIS模型量化了这些风险,识别了高风险地区和脆弱的生态系统,如农田,用于有针对性的保护工作.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 人口增长和人类活动威胁到生态安全和社会稳定.
- 中国的生态保护红线 (ECR) 政策旨在防止生态敏感地区的城市化和工业建设.
- 尽管有ECR政策,但人类的干扰,如种植和采矿,仍然存在,对生态完整性构成风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个概率模型,以空间和定量评估人类干扰对ECRs的风险.
- 评估贝叶斯网络-GIS方法在ECR中识别高风险区域的有效性.
- 为ECR管理提供政策设计和保护干预信息.
主要方法:
- 开发一个贝叶斯网络 (BN) -GIS概率模型,整合人类活动和生态受体.
- 利用案例学习和GIS训练基于风险评估空间属性的BN模型.
- 模型的应用,以评估在江苏省的人类干扰风险ECRs,中国.
主要成果:
- 江苏省的大多数ECR显示人体干扰风险水平低至中等.
- 特定地区,包括连云港市的饮用水源和森林公园,显示风险最高.
- 敏感性分析显示,农田是ECR中人类干扰风险的最重要贡献者.
结论:
- 该BN-GIS模型提供了一个精确且空间显式的方法,用于ECR中对人类干扰风险的评估.
- 这些发现强调了某些ECR组件,特别是耕地,对人类活动的脆弱性.
- 这种方法支持基于证据的ECR调整,监督和管理决策.
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