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在高分辨率电网电池尺度上探索城市洪水风险和弹性之间的关系
Yuntao Wang1, Chi Zhang2, Albert S Chen3
1Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 18, 2023
概括
城市洪水管理需要了解洪水风险和抗灾能力. 这项研究量化了它们在电网单元级别的关系,揭示了受土地覆盖面影响的复杂相互作用,这对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
科学领域:
- 城市水文学 城市水文学
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 有效的城市洪水管理需要清楚地了解洪水风险和抗灾能力.
- 尽管有不同的评估指标,但洪水风险与抗灾能力之间的定量关系仍未得到充分研究.
- 高分辨率评估对于局部城市洪水管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在城市地区的电网电池层面研究洪水风险和弹性之间的定量关系.
- 提出和应用一种基于绩效的新型抗洪能力指标.
- 分析伦敦沃特卢地区的洪水风险和弹性动态.
主要方法:
- 使用系统性能曲线 (洪水持续时间和大小) 开发了基于性能的抗洪能力指标.
- 计算的洪水风险是最大洪水深度和多次风暴事件中的概率的乘积.
- 采用二维细胞自动机模型 (CADDIES) 来对270万个网格细胞进行高分辨率 (5m x 5m) 分析.
主要成果:
- 超过2%的电网电池的洪水风险值超过1.
- 在200年和2000年降雨事件之间观察到0.8以下的弹性值的5%差异 (分别为4%和9%).
- 发现了洪水风险和抗洪能力之间的复杂,依赖于土地覆盖的关系;建筑物,绿地和水体表现出更高的抗洪能力.
结论:
- 抗洪能力的下降通常与洪水风险的增加相关,根据土地覆盖类型的变化.
- 根据风险和弹性水平 (例如,高风险/低弹性) 分类城市区域对于识别洪水热点至关重要.
- 该研究提供了有价值的见解和基于绩效的指标,用于增强城市洪水风险和弹性管理策略.
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