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基于多个来源数据的国家弹性评估和改进:来自"一带一路"沿线国家的证据
Jianping Li1, Jiaxin Yuan1, Weilan Suo2
1School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.
概括
国家弹性评估揭示了"一带一路"国家面临的重大挑战,许多国家没有随着时间的推移而有所改善. 这项研究提供了一个新的模型来识别和解决这些国家弹性赤字.
科学领域:
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 社会经济性 社会经济性
- 国际发展国际发展
背景情况:
- 对于那些经常面临灾害和COVID-19等全球危机的国家来说,国家恢复力至关重要.
- "一带一路" (B&R) 国家由于高灾难频率和损失而特别脆弱.
- 现有的评估缺乏全面的多源数据集成,以准确地分析弹性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个新的国家弹性三维评估模型.
- 评估64个B&R国家的当前国家弹性状况.
- 确定提高国家恢复力的关键宏观指标.
主要方法:
- 一个三维评估模型,整合多源数据,包括灾害损失多样性和宏观指标.
- 对64个B&R国家的17种灾害类型和5个宏观指标的13,000多个记录进行了分析.
- 开发一个经系数调整的渐进回归模型,使用超过19,000条记录和20个宏观指标回归器.
主要成果:
- 对于B&R国家的国家弹性评估通常并不乐观,具有同步的维度趋势和个体差异.
- 大约50%的B&R国家没有随着时间的推移显示出弹性增长.
- 该研究通过回归分析确定了影响国家弹性的主要因素.
结论:
- 拟议的评估模型为了解国家弹性提供了一个强大的框架.
- 需要紧急干预,以解决在B&R国家中确定的国家弹性缺口.
- 这些发现支持基于证据的战略,以提高国家抵御力和促进可持续发展.
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