根据零森林砍伐承诺,预测全球棕油产业的扩张:直接和间接的土地利用变化影响
Floris Leijten1, Uris Lantz C Baldos2, Justin A Johnson3
1Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
iScience
|June 19, 2023
概括
棕油行业的零森林砍伐承诺 (ZDC) 可以显著减少森林砍伐. 如果完全采用,ZDC可能会使全球油棕种植面积减少40%,从而挽救9600万公的森林.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 近几十年来,全球棕油产量急剧增加,往往导致热带雨林砍伐.
- 棕油行业的许多公司都采取了零森林砍伐承诺 (ZDCs) 来减轻对环境的影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计到2030年广泛采用和执行ZDC对棕油扩张和森林砍伐的潜在影响.
- 量化在ZDC完全合规的场景下节省的森林面积,与业务正常 (BAU) 场景相比.
主要方法:
- 在两个场景下建模油棕种植园的全球范围:完全符合ZDC和BAU.
- 计算两种情景之间的油棕种植园土地转型差异.
- 估计总森林面积的节约,以及由于棕油的扩张而被转换的节约森林的比例.
主要成果:
- 完全采用和执行ZDC可能会导致到2030年油棕种植园比BAU场景小40% (1100万公).
- 据估计,9600万公的森林可以从转换中获救.
- 在BAU情景下,大约17%的保存森林将直接或间接地通过扩大棕油种植园进行转换.
结论:
- 零森林砍伐承诺具有巨大的潜力,可以带来显著的环境效益,特别是在保护热带雨林方面.
- 区域开发中心的有效性取决于它们的全面采用和在所有相关部门和地理区域严格执行.
- 实施和执行ZDC可以带来相当大的土地节约效应,减轻农业扩张对生物多样性和生态系统服务的负面影响.
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